Mid-February is when a lot of suppliers ask the same question: “Why isn’t this promo converting like it used to?” You’re not imagining it.

Mid-February is when “value pressure” stops being a headline and becomes a buyer conversation. And the signals are getting louder. PepsiCo has said it plans to cut snack prices by up to 15% to boost sales—reported in recent coverage tied to slowing snack volumes and consumer price sensitivity.

Late January is when many supplier teams have the same quiet moment. You look at Q4 shipments and sales. You feel good about demand. Then you look at the bank balance… and it doesn’t match the story. That gap isn’t bad selling. It’s netting. It’s the reality that in retail, revenue can be real and still not be cash—at least not yet.

This isn’t about fighting every deduction. It’s about protecting working capital with a repeatable operating system.

If 2025 felt like retailers were measuring everything, 2026 is when they start enforcing it with fewer humans in the loop. The reason is simple: AI and automation spending is exploding. International Data Corporation (IDC) forecast that year-over-year spending on AI will grow 31.9% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $1.3 trillion by 2029, driven largely by agentic AI-enabled applications.

In the first quarter (Q1), promotions are enforced by systems, not people. Here’s how suppliers stop short pays, billback chaos, and trade spend leakage before it repeats all year. Trade spend is one of the biggest checks you write all year. And in Q1 (first quarter), it has a bad habit of turning into a second job—because the retailer’s system starts “auditing” your promotions for you. Not with a person. With rules.

Returns aren’t just a retailer's problem anymore. They’re a supplier profit problem. And January is when you feel it.

Google announced the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) —an open standard designed to enable AI “agents” to communicate with retailers and commerce platforms throughout the purchase journey. And it didn’t show up alone. Google highlighted partnerships with Walmart, Shopify, and Target (among others), with the goal of letting customers complete purchases in Google Search and Gemini without hopping between apps and retailer sites. If you supply retail, here’s the simple take

Trade spend is supposed to buy growth. In Q1, it often buys you something else: confusion, short pays, and weeks of “Can you resend the backup?” If you’ve ever looked at a deduction and thought, “We already funded that promotion… why are we paying again?”—welcome to the club. Why this matters more than ever in 2026 Retail is entering 2026 with shoppers still seeking value. Retailers are leaning into deals, private label, and “dupes,” and they’re getting more aggressive about

Discover how the blocked Kroger merger impacts the grocery landscape, with Walmart emerging as a key player. Explore the Kroger merger dynamics.

You can have a strong sales year and still feel broke. That usually means one thing: money is leaking out after the sale—through deductions, chargebacks, and short pays.

If 2026 had a supply chain slogan, it would be: “Nice single-source you’ve got there. Hope nothing happens.” Most suppliers don’t dual-source because it’s fun. They do it because retail punishments for inconsistency are real: out-of-stocks, missed promotions, and sometimes lost shelf space.

2026 looks like a year of modest top-line growth, more challenging profit math, and more “systems-driven” retail. Translation: retailers will still want growth, but they’ll increasingly demand it through automation, tighter compliance, and pay-to-play visibility.

If you’re a retail supplier, 2025 probably felt like you were fighting margin with both hands tied behind your back. Not because demand disappeared. Not because your product suddenly got worse.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects 2025 holiday retail sales in November and December to cross the $1 trillion mark for the first time, up about 3.7%–4.2% over last year. And 2024 already set a record, with core holiday sales hitting roughly $994.1 billion, up 4% year over year. That’s great for headlines. But here’s the question that matters for you as a supplier: Did holiday retail sales actually lift your margin?

Year-end close can feel like a necessary evil. Accruals. Reclasses. Deductions. Spreadsheets everywhere. But here’s the opportunity: the same work you are doing to close the books can help you open the story you tell buyers in 2026.

The confetti falls on New Year’s. Then January hits… and your deduction report looks like a horror movie. That’s not a coincidence. Holiday returns and “excessive defectives” programs are increasingly where retailers manage their risk—and where suppliers quietly lose a lot of money.

Cyber Monday has become the Super Bowl of online retail. In 2024, U.S. shoppers spent $13.3 billion online on Cyber Monday, up 7.3% year over year—the biggest single online shopping day ever recorded. During the peak hours of 8:00–10:00 p.m. Eastern, consumers were spending about $15.8 million per minute.

From the outside, Black Friday is all about doorbusters. From your side of the table, it’s about something way less glamorous: data integrity.

If retail felt slow this year, you’re not imagining things. Big banners plan category resets months ahead; most categories are refreshed at least annually.