Surviving the Tariff Whiplash: Lessons from 2018–2019

What do tariffs and retail deductions have in common? They both hit hard when you're not looking.

Let’s paint the picture.

You’re a supplier with goods on the water, committed orders in play, and forecasts built on last quarter’s logic. Then—bam—a new round of tariffs hits. You’re scrambling to recalculate landed costs. But here’s the kicker: even if you survive the sticker shock, what about all the deductions and markdowns that follow?

In the latest episode of The Savvy Supplier, HRG co-founder Boyd Evert puts it plainly: “We are in uncharted waters.” That’s not just a soundbite—it’s a survival warning. The U.S. market is shifting underfoot, and if you’re still clinging to last year’s forecasting models, you’re in trouble.

Tariffs Don't Just Raise Prices—They Complicate Everything

Retailers don’t want surprises. Consumers don’t want higher prices. Suppliers? They’re caught in the middle, trying to decide how much of the pain to absorb. And let’s not kid ourselves—your P&L is already groaning under the weight of promotions, freight, compliance fees, and yes, deductions.

As Boyd explained, “There’s no good choice here.” Pass the tariff cost along, and you risk demand collapse. Eat the cost, and your margins vanish. Either way, this isn’t a normal price increase cycle—it’s a volatile new frontier.

Forecasting Just Became a Guessing Game

What happens when your baseline disappears?

Boyd broke it down: In typical years, you could look back at historical promotions and get a pretty solid sales estimate. That’s out the window now. Tariff-driven price swings don’t follow predictable patterns, and many of the items affected (like TVs, appliances, or even kitchen blenders) are already price-sensitive.

The result? Inventory that lingers. Events that flop. And deductions that pile up.

Deductions Multiply When Inventory Sits

Let’s say a retailer over-orders based on an outdated forecast, or maybe they didn’t anticipate consumers tightening their wallets. Who funds the markdowns when items don’t move?

Usually, it’s not the retailer.

One fictional example Boyd shared involved a supplier stuck with clearance fees after a buyer pushed in more inventory than needed. That buyer moved on. The new buyer didn’t take the blame. The supplier had two options: fund the markdowns or take the product back.

Neither one is a win.

Now, imagine adding tariff surcharges to that mess. Deductions stack fast, and if you’re not actively auditing or pushing back, they’ll silently drain your margins line by line.

Advice for Suppliers: Communication is Your Lifeline

Here’s the good news—you’re not powerless. Boyd recommends talking early and often.

Retailers need transparency. Let them know that pricing volatility is on the way. Not just because of tariffs, but because you want to avoid killing demand or eating unprofitable orders.

The solution? Partner strategically.

Forget the one-time pricing letter. This is a season for ongoing dialogue.

And as Boyd emphasized, “Suppliers and retailers need to look together for ways to pass on the lowest possible cost to the consumer.” That means information-sharing. That means real-time forecasting. And that means planning together so no one gets stuck holding the bag.

Conclusion

Advice for Suppliers: This is the kind of conversation retail suppliers can’t afford to miss. Boyd Evert breaks it all down in the full episode of The Savvy Supplier. 🎧 Watch the episode here: https://www.hrg-audit.com/podcast