Tariffs Are the Spark. Retail Deductions Are the Wildfire.

You can’t stop a lightning strike. But you can clear the dry brush that turns it into a raging inferno.

That’s what we see with these new reciprocal U.S. tariffs. They’re the spark—igniting price shifts, vendor disputes, and shipping chaos. But the real fire? It’s what happens next: the sudden surge in chargebacks, compliance fees, and deductions that nobody saw coming.

Or worse—saw coming, but didn’t have the time or tools to track.

Let’s be real. When global trade takes a hard turn, it shakes everything. Suppliers start scrambling to recalculate pricing, reroute logistics, and renegotiate contracts. Everyone is in fire-drill mode. But while you're busy putting out front-end fires, back-end deductions quietly start piling up in the dark.

And they will pile up.

According to a recent Deloitte study, deduction errors cost companies up to $200 billion annually across industries. In retail, where margins are already razor thin, that number hits differently. A missed deduction isn’t just a mistake—it’s a leak. And when tariffs hit, those leaks become gushers.

Here’s a fictional example that could easily happen:

Imagine you’re running a mid-sized snack company. Overnight, a tariff goes into effect that increases your packaging costs by 15%. You update your price lists and notify your retailers.

But somewhere in the backend systems, a data sync fails. Your new cost doesn’t match the old promo pricing on file. Three weeks later, you get hit with a wave of compliance deductions you weren’t expecting. Thousands of dollars are gone before you even realize what triggered it.

That’s how it happens. Quiet. Fast. Costly.

At HRG, we’ve seen patterns like this again and again. The chaos up front opens the door to vulnerabilities in the back. Systems fall out of sync. Small oversights get magnified. Deductions slip through. And because most deduction recovery efforts are still reactive, companies don’t catch them until it’s too late.

But there’s good news: Deduction recovery is one of the few places where suppliers can regain some control.

You may not be able to stop tariff policy from shifting. But you can stop unnecessary cash from slipping through the cracks. You can have visibility into your deduction data. You can have a partner who helps you spot and recover what you didn’t know you were losing.

So yes—tariffs may be the spark. But with the right insight into your deductions, you can prevent a wildfire.

Don’t wait for the fire to spread.

If your team is already stretched thin responding to tariff fallout, now’s the time to shine a light on what’s slipping through the cracks. Start by getting visibility into your deductions—and see what’s hiding behind the chaos.

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