On Feb. 9, 2026, Kroger appointed Greg Foran as CEO—effective immediately—ending an unusually long stretch of interim leadership after Rodney McMullen’s exit in 2025. And this isn’t business as usual for Kroger. Foran is widely described as Kroger’s first external CEO hire. That matters because it signals the board doesn’t just want stability. It wants a reset.

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court drew a bright legal line: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. And then—almost immediately—the market got the part everyone in retail cares about: the costs didn’t “reset.” They just moved to a different lever.

You know the feeling: sales look healthy, shelves are full, and yet the cash line keeps getting nibbled to death by deductions. Excessive defectives are one of the sneakiest nibblers. Because it sounds like an operational issue—damaged goods, returns, reclamation, the messy stuff that happens after the sale. And yes, some of it is real. But a surprising amount of it is mis-coded, duplicated, out-of-window, or simply not yours to pay.

In late February 2026, the headline finally flipped: Amazon reported $716.9B in 2025 revenue, edging past Walmart’s $713.2B for its most recent fiscal year. That doesn’t mean Walmart “lost.” Walmart’s online business is still growing fast (its global ecommerce sales are now $150B+ annually, with a recent quarter showing ~24% ecommerce growth).

Promotions are supposed to drive velocity. But for many suppliers, promotions also drive something else: short pays. That’s when the retailer pays less than your invoice—often tied to promotional allowances, bill-backs, scanbacks, markdown funds, or price file mismatches. And the money isn’t small.

Markdowns feel simple in the store: price goes down, product sells through. But financially? Markdowns can turn into a messy conversation about who funds the margin gap—and whether the claim you received matches what you actually agreed to.

Picture this: A shopper opens Google, types: “best date snack under $10, gluten-free, kid-friendly,” and an The AI assistant filters, compares options, and completes checkout—without the shopper clicking through 10 different product pages. That’s not sci-fi. Google is rolling out Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) as an open standard designed to support agentic commerce—AI agents that can move from discovery to purchase.

McKinsey reports that consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies invest about 20% of revenue in trade promotions, and that a large share of promotions fail to generate profit (their article cites research indicating 59% lost money globally and 72% in the United States). So when a promotional allowance is misapplied, duplicated, or “missing documentation” later appears as a deduction… it’s not a rounding error. It’s your margin getting billed twice.

If retail deductions used to feel like a messy argument between humans… welcome to 2026. A growing share of deductions is getting triggered by rule engines—systems that match your purchase order (PO), advance ship notice (ASN), electronic data interchange (EDI) messages, delivery appointments, and invoice terms in milliseconds. When something doesn’t align, the payment amount is reduced. Automatically.

If you’ve ever seen an “excessive defectives” fee and thought, Wait… since when are we paying a subscription for returns? — You’re not alone.

Mid-February is when a lot of suppliers ask the same question: “Why isn’t this promo converting like it used to?” You’re not imagining it.

Retail compliance used to feel like a binder on a shelf. Now it’s more like a moving target—with three versions. A routing guide gets updated. A portal rule changes. Someone forwards an email amendment. Your third-party logistics provider (3PL) has a checklist that’s nearly identical. Meanwhile, your warehouse is just trying to ship clean, on time, every day.

Mid-February is when “value pressure” stops being a headline and becomes a buyer conversation. And the signals are getting louder. PepsiCo has said it plans to cut snack prices by up to 15% to boost sales—reported in recent coverage tied to slowing snack volumes and consumer price sensitivity.

One deduction is painful. Two for the same issue? That’s a margin leak with a trench coat on. Duplicate deductions usually aren’t malicious. They’re procedural. Multiple systems, multiple teams, and multiple “reasons” can get attached to the same underlying event—especially when disputes are rushed, and documentation is scattered.

Valentine’s is one of those holidays that looks small on the calendar… until you feel it in the PO volume. For 2026, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects Valentine’s spending to hit a record $29.1 billion, with shoppers budgeting $199.78 on average.

“Excessive defectives” fees have a way of showing up like a tax. Not because your product suddenly got worse overnight—but because returns, handling, and attribution get messy after peak season. And February is when the mess hardens into numbers that hit your remittance.

February can feel… quieter. No holiday promo chaos. No year-end close panic. Just a brief window where you can finally look up. And that’s exactly when a lot of suppliers discover the problem: deductions have been stacking up in the background, hiding in offsets, short pays, and messy remittance detail. One industry paper from the Return Value Chain Federation (RVCF) put it bluntly: depending on the industry, customer deductions can reach 5%–15% of revenue, and even “typical”

Tariffs don’t just change costs. They change deductions. Because the moment your costs move, you’re in a race between reality and the retailer’s system.

February is when the holiday glow fades… and the math gets loud. You shipped hard in November and December. Sales looked great. Then the “after” shows up: returns, refunds, disputes, and retailer chargebacks that quietly claw back cash when everyone’s already sprinting into the new year.

Last year, you could win a dispute with a decent note and a screenshot. This year, that same package gets denied because it’s missing the lot code, the timestamp, the condition photo, and the proof of delivery. It feels personal. It’s not.