January is when retailers try to get their house back in order. They’ve got seasonal inventory to clear, new sets to build, and demand that usually cools off after December. One study found retail spending drops an average 22.4% between December and January.

If 2025 felt like retailers were measuring everything, 2026 is when they start enforcing it with fewer humans in the loop. The reason is simple: AI and automation spending is exploding. International Data Corporation (IDC) forecast that year-over-year spending on AI will grow 31.9% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $1.3 trillion by 2029, driven largely by agentic AI-enabled applications.

In the first quarter (Q1), promotions are enforced by systems, not people. Here’s how suppliers stop short pays, billback chaos, and trade spend leakage before it repeats all year. Trade spend is one of the biggest checks you write all year. And in Q1 (first quarter), it has a bad habit of turning into a second job—because the retailer’s system starts “auditing” your promotions for you. Not with a person. With rules.

Returns aren’t just a retailer's problem anymore. They’re a supplier profit problem. And January is when you feel it.

You’re trying to close Q4. Retailers are resetting priorities. Customers are returning gifts, disputing charges, and testing policies. And suddenly your finance team is staring at a number that feels… unfair.

Q1 is the quarter where everyone asks the same question: “Did we actually make money on that holiday volume?” Because the truth usually arrives late—through promotional billbacks, pricing deductions, and post-audit debits that land weeks (or months) after the product shipped. NRF’s Retail Monitor data showed 2025 holiday sales (Nov. 1–Dec. 31) grew 4.1% . That’s a lot of invoices, a lot of promotions, and a lot of opportunities for the math to drift. And drift is exactly how

Google announced the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) —an open standard designed to enable AI “agents” to communicate with retailers and commerce platforms throughout the purchase journey. And it didn’t show up alone. Google highlighted partnerships with Walmart, Shopify, and Target (among others), with the goal of letting customers complete purchases in Google Search and Gemini without hopping between apps and retailer sites. If you supply retail, here’s the simple take

Learn how to tackle defective deductions in Q1 returns. Stop losing money to defective deductions with our expert guidance and boost your margins.

Trade spend is supposed to buy growth. In Q1, it often buys you something else: confusion, short pays, and weeks of “Can you resend the backup?” If you’ve ever looked at a deduction and thought, “We already funded that promotion… why are we paying again?”—welcome to the club. Why this matters more than ever in 2026 Retail is entering 2026 with shoppers still seeking value. Retailers are leaning into deals, private label, and “dupes,” and they’re getting more aggressive about

1) Split-shipment confusion Holiday fulfillment is messy. Partial shipments are common. The dispute comes when the customer (or retailer’s system) treats “partial” as “missing.” What to save: shipment IDs, carton tracking, carrier scans by package, and timestamps showing each leg of fulfillment. 2) “Porch claims” and delivery disputes Package says “delivered.” Customer says “never received.” Retailers increasingly push for faster resolutions to protect customer experience—th

Explore the intricacies of Q1 2026 Supply Chain Risk: Freight, AI, and Deductions. Learn how deductions impact your business strategy.

Discover the 2026 Grocery Deduction Hotspots! Learn how shortages and unsaleables impact profits and how to tackle grocery deduction challenges.

Retailers didn’t just “add artificial intelligence (AI)” in 2025. They wired it into the parts of the business that decide what gets ordered, where it gets shipped, and how fast a supplier gets paid. That’s why AI feels different now. It’s not a feature. It’s the operating system. And here’s the part suppliers need to internalize: when retailers automate decisions, they also automate penalties . What used to be a one-off issue resolved by a helpful merchant or replenishment m

Discover how the blocked Kroger merger impacts the grocery landscape, with Walmart emerging as a key player. Explore the Kroger merger dynamics.

Discover how to tackle promo deductions effectively and prevent margin leaks. Learn strategies to manage promo deductions in a tariff-heavy economy.

White speech bubble with a cutout percentage symbol on a blue gradient background, casting a shadow, suggesting communication of value.

The first two weeks of January are when finance teams do something heroic. They take a year of real-world chaos—short shipments, pricing updates, promotions, returns, compliance issues—and force it into clean financial statements.

You can have a strong sales year and still feel broke. That usually means one thing: money is leaking out after the sale—through deductions, chargebacks, and short pays.

If 2026 had a supply chain slogan, it would be: “Nice single-source you’ve got there. Hope nothing happens.” Most suppliers don’t dual-source because it’s fun. They do it because retail punishments for inconsistency are real: out-of-stocks, missed promotions, and sometimes lost shelf space.

If you sell into retail, January is when the “customer experience” turns into a finance problem. Returns are the obvious headline. But the sneakier issue is what rides along with returns: disputes, claims, and deductions that show up weeks later on the remittance—often coded in ways that make them hard to validate quickly.