The first two weeks of January are when finance teams do something heroic. They take a year of real-world chaos—short shipments, pricing updates, promotions, returns, compliance issues—and force it into clean financial statements.

If you sell into retail, January is when the “customer experience” turns into a finance problem. Returns are the obvious headline. But the sneakier issue is what rides along with returns: disputes, claims, and deductions that show up weeks later on the remittance—often coded in ways that make them hard to validate quickly.

There is something about the last few weeks of the year that makes everyone want a reset. Sales is thinking about new distribution. Operations is thinking about capacity. Finance focuses on cash, margin, and how closely the numbers align with plan. And deductions?

You know the drill. Everyone celebrates the holiday numbers: “Record Black Friday!” “Best Cyber Week ever!” “Christmas sell-through is way ahead of plan!” Then Q1 rolls around. Finance closes the books.Suddenly, the story changes

Year-end is when everyone wants something from you. Finance wants clean books. Supply chain wants frozen forecasts. Sales wants that last push to hit the number. Leadership wants a tidy story for the board. Somewhere in the middle of all this, deductions sit in a report tab called “later.”

If you work in finance, accounts receivable, or accounts payable, you’ve probably seen the promises in your inbox: “Let artificial intelligence handle your deductions.” “Automate disputes end-to-end.” “Close more claims with fewer people.”

Here’s a slightly uncomfortable truth: retailers are already benchmarking you. They benchmark your on-time performance, your fill rates, your chargebacks, your defectives, and your responsiveness when something goes wrong. Programs like On-Time In Full (OTIF) can assess penalties of around 3% of the cost of goods for shipments that are late, early, or incomplete. Some retailers’ chargebacks range from 1–5% of gross invoice when suppliers don’t follow routing guides. 

On paper, your deduction report looks clean. You see totals by retailer, maybe a breakdown by code or reason. Someone tells you, “We’re running at about 2% of sales in deductions—pretty typical.” You nod, move on to the next slide, and feel reasonably at peace.

If you’re a chief financial officer (CFO), you probably have a sixth sense for where money hides. You can sniff out bloated trade spend, slow-moving inventory, and overhead creep from a mile away. But there’s one place even sharp finance leaders quietly overlook: the deduction line.

Holiday returns are here—and how you classify them decides whether you pay for them later. You must separate true defective  products from shipping damage  or policy abuse  (like “used once, then returned”) before retailers reset your “excessive defectives” rates. What’s at stake:  the wrong label today can lock in higher return allowances or additional chargebacks for months. Fictional example (for illustration):  A home electronics brand treated all returns as “defective.”

Promotions move product. They also generate deductions if your math or your proof is fuzzy. The goal: make promotional allowance deductions match the plan—no more, no less—and be ready to win the audit later.

Cyber Monday is a rocket booster for sales—and a magnet for deductions. When orders surge, small disconnects in marketplace fee math, split shipments, or “porch piracy” claims can snowball into accounts payable (AP) headaches and post-audit chargebacks.

Black Friday moves fast. Price files, promotions, and point-of-sale (POS) syncs don’t always move with it. When they don’t, you get price claims and invoice debits.

Short week. Fewer people. Same (or more) shipments. This is when small misses become expensive. Fictional example (for illustration):  A candy supplier shipped on Thursday with no “owner backup.” A Friday receiving window moved; no one was watching. The truck missed, and On-Time In-Full (OTIF)  penalties landed. A two-minute handoff would have prevented it. Your preflight before you log off Shipment holds & gates:  Reconfirm receiving hours and blackout dates for all active p

Trade spend is supposed to grow sales—not quietly fund deductions. Industry estimates often peg trade spend at 20–25% of gross revenue , yet leakage from unclear terms, mis-accruals, and missing proofs regularly eats 1–2 points of margin. Where the January “surprise” happens. Cooperative advertising ( co-op ) and market development funds ( MDF ) reconciliations arrive with fuzzy backup. “Rate card drift” means the ad ran at a different cost than you accrued. Promo proofs live

Advance Ship Notice ( ASN ), Uniform Code Council-128 ( UCC-128 ) carton labels, and distribution center ( DC ) mix decisions decide whether your loads glide through—or get hit with negative acknowledgments ( NAKs ) and compliance chargebacks. Why it spikes in Q4.  More promotions. More split purchase orders ( POs ). More DC reassignments. More ways your plan breaks. Fictional example (for illustration):  A home goods supplier shipped on time, but their ASN posted after gate-

On-Time In-Full ( OTIF ) is simple on paper and brutal in peak. A missed window here, a short-shipped pallet there—and suddenly you’re funding the retailer’s margin via chargebacks. Here’s the part most teams miss: OTIF isn’t won in the warehouse. It’s won in the calendar. A quick reality check.  Across the industry, suppliers routinely see November–December carrier on-time performance ( OTP ) sag as capacity tightens and dwell times creep up. Even modest slippage can stack i

Black Friday doesn’t just test your demand plan—it stress-tests your price files, order flow, and shipping logic at the same time. Miss one sync or let a small error ride, and you can trigger a mass event: hundreds of price claims, a wave of canceled purchase orders (POs), and split shipments that later look like shortages.

Black Friday can make—or quietly drain—your year. Not because shoppers didn’t show. Because your price files, promo proofs, and terms confirmations didn’t lock before the doors opened, when they’re off, you don’t get a few invoice issues—you get a mass event: price variances across every store, on every unit, all weekend long. That’s how great promotions turn into invoice claims on Monday.

If you’re staring at December 31 and thinking, “We’ll clean up deductions after the holidays,” here’s the friendly nudge: don’t. A slow dispute now becomes a write-off later.